The transportation services industry, and particularly the airline industry, is often associated with high costs and varying degrees of profitability. As a result, airlines often seek new sources of income (e.g., ala carte pricing for additional services) and innovative ways to increase revenues (e.g., optimizing existing processes). One such method of increasing revenues involves offering for sale a greater number of seats for any particular flight than is actually available on the flight. Such a strategy of authorizing more seats to be sold than there exists in inventory is often referred to as an “overbooking” strategy.
Most airlines overbook because some passengers holding a confirmed reservation will not show up for the flight (“no-show”), and the resulting empty seats represent forgone revenue opportunity for the airline. Traditional overbooking strategies have proven to be effective in generating increasing revenue, reducing costs and generally improving overall operational efficiencies for airlines. However, traditional overbooking optimization methods and systems often employ broad estimating techniques that produce only marginally accurate passenger no-show forecast and cost data. Thus, a long-felt need exists to provide a robust, model driven, sophisticated and customizable revenue maximization, cost forecasting and overbooking management system to enable accurate, timely and revenue maximizing data to the airline operation.
An overbooking strategy for a flight is accomplished by forecasting no-show rates, and then selling (i.e., overbooking) at a level that minimizes costs associated with operating a flight with empty seats, while also minimizing the expected total costs of overbooking. In other words, overbooking costs include not only the revenue opportunity cost of a flight with empty seats (spoiled seat (“SS”) costs), but also costs associated with denying a passenger boarding on a flight due to overbooking denied boarding (“DB”) costs. DB costs are incurred when more passengers show up than there are seats to accommodate them, and the airline has to compensate such denied passengers with, for example, vouchers (e.g., for a discount off of future travel) and/or cash payments (which may be established by law or regulation). Another cost associated with denying a passenger boarding is “ill-will,” which can be thought of as the opposite of good will, wherein ill-will accrues to the airline and/or the airline's brand due to denied boardings.